Constraint-adaptation challenges and resilience transitions of the industry environmental system in a resource-dependent city

摘要

Resource-dependent cities face the significant challenge of industrial transition under resource and environmental constraints. However, the interplay between industrial and environmental variables and their resilience trajectories have received insufficient attention to date. A constraint-adaptation framework was established to quantify the constraint-adaptation trajectory and resilience transitions of the industry-environmental system in the transition pilot of Baiyin City, western China. In this framework, an environmental performance index (EPI) was employed to reveal constraints of seven resource and environmental variables on local industrial development, combining with industrial indicators (i.e., industrial structure entropy and the shift-share method) to reflect the industrial structure adaptation. The resilience trajectories of seven resource and environmental variables were simulated to depict the industry-environmental system resilience dynamics using the four-phase adaptive cycle theory. Results from 1990 to 2016 in Baiyin City demonstrate that: (1) heavy dependence on mineral and energy resources, and resulting solid waste and atmospheric pollution, undermined local industrial competitiveness; (2) The competitiveness of secondary industry experienced a descending trend since 2011, while the total increase fell dramatically with total deviation of -30.64%; (3) the system underwent a vulnerable resilience transition to great adaptive capacity, with most resilience values greater than 0.5 (ascending adaptive capacity with resilience values from 0 to 1) in the past five years; (4) aggressive transition measures must be adopted to enhance adaptive capacity in the local industry-environmental system and foster co-benefits. This study provides a model to explore the transitions of resource-dependent cities in and beyond China.