Global sensitivity analysis of the hydraulic parameters of the reservoir colluvial landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China

摘要

Hydraulic parameters are key data for calculating groundwater level, which is critical for assessing reservoir landslide stability. However, the quantitative understanding the influence of hydraulic parameters on the groundwater level of a reservoir landslide remains limited. In this paper, we apply a novel global sensitivity analysis method, PAWN, to quantify the sensitivity of hydraulic properties. The Shuping landslide, which is a typical reservoir colluvial landslide located in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China, is used as a study case. The hydraulic parameters are first sampled within their entire feasibility space by the Latin hypercube sampling method. These samples are then used as inputs into a nonintrusive finite element program to automatically compute the corresponding groundwater level outputs. Finally, sensitivity indices are calculated based on the input-output dataset via the PAWN method. The global sensitivity analysis results provide useful guidelines for site investigation and reservoir colluvial landslide model simplification and calibration.