Jackup market to 2022: activity steady but surplus remains

摘要

North Sea Rig Report's first forecast for the jackup market to the end of 2021 was recently finalised,and it paints a fairly stable picture for demand but one where marketed supply is expected to exceed the work on offer over the entire period.The chart below illustrates projected demand across the four constituent countries of the market,plotted againsl marketed and total supply,and the expected marketed surplus.The chart takes demand and supply across Northwest Europe as a whole.Although not as seasonal as the floater market,operators are tending to congregate their programmes over the second and third quarters of the year resulting in pronounced spikes in marketed surplus over the winter.Demand across 2019 is expected to average 29.8 units,with marketed supply averaging 37.2,leading to an average marketed surplus of 7.4 over the year.In 2020,average demand is expected to increase slightly to 31.9 units against average marketed supply of 39.0,giving an average marketed surplus of 7.1.Over 2021,average demand at present is expected to average 27.9 units from average marketed supply of 37.4,giving an average marketed surplus of 9.5 over the year.North Sea-capable jackups rigs in other parts of the world-like Noble Regina Allen or Valaris JU-248(ex-Rowan Gorilla VI)-could also still return.