Modeling and analysis of mining subsidence disaster chains based on stochastic Petri nets

摘要

Coal mining that results in goaf causes ground surface subsidence. It will in turn cause a disruptive threat to the surface construction, water, and slope body, which constitutes a transitive relationship. In the process of a disaster chain, the interactions between disasters have serious negative consequences. To solve these problems, we clearly established model elements of the disaster chain and analyzed their control flow relationships. On that basis, the stochastic Petri nets, as a powerful mathematical modeling tool that can be used to describe discrete and distributed systems, were adopted to model the process of mine ground surface subsidence disaster chains using the DISChain_Net model. The cause and process of the destruction as well as the disaster consequences were discussed. Then, the crucial nodes in the process of the disaster chain delivery were identified, which enabled the decision makers to make a reasonable judgment and implement mitigation measures. The study will thus provide new research ideas for studying the mine ground surface subsidence disasters through modeling, analysis, and assessment.