The effect of weather patterns on winter small city urban heat islands

摘要

The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon has been gaining intensity because of population growth, continuous urbanization and inappropriate urban planning and design. Geospatial models can importantly contribute to solving the negative impacts left behind by these developments in the urban environment. Here, the influence of different weather patterns (anticyclonic, cyclonic and advective), occurring as a consequence of regional synoptic conditions, on UHI intensity and morphology was studied. The previously published geographically weighted regression UHI model was used in order to predict the behaviour of the urban-rural temperature anomaly in different weather patterns in a small city named Ljutomer (8 km(2) of built-up area occupied by 3,500 inhabitants) located in the northeast part of Slovenia. As expected, UHI intensity was significantly higher in the anticyclonic weather pattern compared to cyclonic and advective conditions. The urban-rural temperature contrast was at least recognizable under a turbulent windy atmosphere. Surprisingly, Ljutomer's UHI can be most accurately modelled in the cyclonic weather pattern, followed by advective and anticyclonic conditions, and statistically significant cold-spots can be better predicted, with selected predictor variables, than hot-spots.