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Outside the envelope: rare events disrupt the relationship between climate factors and species interactions

机译:在信封之外:罕见的事件扰乱气候因素与物种相互作用之间的关系

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The order in which species arrive during community assembly can be an important driver of community composition and function. However, the strength of these priority effects can be variable, in part because of strong site and year effects. To understand how priority effects vary in importance with abiotic conditions, we initiated identical community assembly experiments in which we varied the timing of arrival of native and exotic grass species in each of 4 yr across three grassland sites in northern California. This uniquely replicated experiment tested the power of priority to determine initial community structure in a restoration context across a natural range of conditions. There were large and significant differences in both total seeded cover and the strength of priority across sites and years of initiation, confirming the suspicion that most ecological experiments may lack spatial and temporal generality. On the other hand, much of the variation in strength of priority could be related to climate. Strikingly, however, the model fit across the three sites and the first 3 yr of the study (the first nine experiments) was radically altered when we included the fourth year, which was characterized by an unusual weather pattern with higher temporal variability in rainfall (a rainfall pattern predicted to increase with climate change). This year produced relatively low strength of priority, supporting the suggestion that highly variable climates may be associated with lower strength of priority effects. Experiments that examine community assembly over a range of naturally occurring abiotic conditions enhance our ability to predict when priority effects will be important, allowing us to explore shifting patterns of community assembly in the face of climate change and optimize restoration strategies based on environmental conditions.
机译:物种在社区组装期间到达的顺序可以是社区成分和功能的重要驾驶员。然而,这些优先效应的强度可以是可变的,部分原因是强大的场地和年度影响。要了解优先效应如何与非生物条件的重要性变化,我们发起了相同的社区装配实验,其中我们在北加州北部三个草地景点中的4年间到达了本地和异国情调的草地的时间。这种独特的复制实验测试了优先权的优先权,以确定在自然条件范围内的恢复背景下的初始社区结构。总种子覆盖率和跨场所和年多年的优先强度差异大而显着差异,确认怀疑大多数生态实验可能缺乏空间和时间普遍性。另一方面,优先考虑强度的大部分变化可能与气候有关。然而,惊人的是,当我们包括第四年时,跨越三个地点的模型和研究的前3年利用气候变化增加了降雨量。今年的优先考虑强度产生了相对较低的强度,支持高度可变气候的建议可能与较低的优先效应强度相关联。在一系列天然存在的非生物条件下检查社区组装的实验提高了我们预测优先效应的能力,允许我们在面对气候变化面前探索社区组件的转移模式,并根据环境条件优化恢复策略。

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