Long‐term austral summer wind speed trends over southern Africa

Nchaba Teboho; Mpholo Moeketsi; Lennard Chris

摘要

ABSTRACT xml:id="joc4883-para-0001"> A comprehensive analysis of near surface (10‐m and 850 <fc>hPa</fc> ) long‐term (1980–2015) austral summer mean wind speed trends over southern Africa and the surrounding oceans (10°–40°S and 10°W‐50°E) is carried out. The climate forecast system reanalysis and the climate forecast system reanalysis version 2, the modern era retrospective‐analysis for research and applications version 2, and the <fc>ERA</fc> ‐Interim products are used for the analysis. Trends are estimated using the Theil–Sen slope estimator and their significance tested with the Mann–Kendall test. Attribution of the wind speed trends to large scale circulation systems is determined from: (1) trends in 850 <fc>hPa</fc> geopotential height, surface pressure, and surface skin temperatures, (2) changes in the annual frequency of archetypal synoptic states generated by self‐organizing maps from geopotential height data, and (3) the correlations of the wind speeds to the southern annular mode ( <fc>SAM</fc> ) and El Ni?o Southern Oscillations ( <fc>ENSO</fc> ) indices. There is an overall decline in wind speeds evident in all the reanalyses. Wind speeds reduce by an average 0.7 and 1.3?m?s ?1 at 10?m and 850 <fc>hPa</fc> , respectively, over the study period. Deceleration in midlatitude westerly and Atlantic south easterly winds are associated with a poleward shift in the subtropical anticyclone, a positive trend in the annual frequency of summer circulation weather types, and the weakening of the subtropical continental heat low. The <fc>SAM</fc> and <fc>ENSO</fc> are also found to have a statistically significant linear association with </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”xml：id =“joc4883-abs-0001”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> < p XML：ID =“JOC4883-PARA-0001”>全面分析近曲面（10-M和850 <FC> HPA </ FC>）长期（1980-2015）南部夏季南部的风速趋势非洲和周围的海洋（10°-40°S和10°W-50°E）进行。气候预测系统再分析和气候预测系统重新分析2版，现代时代回顾研究和研究和应用版本2，以及<FC> ERA </ FC> -Interim产品用于分析。使用Theil-sen斜坡估计器估计趋势及其与Mann-Kendall测试测试的重要性。风速趋势对大规模循环系统的归因是：（1）850 <FC> HPA </ FC>地球势高度，表面压力和表面皮肤温度的趋势，（2）初原型频率的变化通过从地球势高度数据自组织地图生成的概要状态，以及（3）风速与南方环形模式的相关性（<FC> SAM </ FC>）和EL NI？O Southern振荡（<FC> Enso </ fc>）指数。所有Reanalyses都有风速的总体下降。在研究期间，风速度分别在10μm和850 <fc> HPA </ FC>下平均为0.7和1.3？m？s 1。中位于中游和大西洋东风的减速与亚热带的反周障通风岩中的向外偏移，夏季循环天气类型的阳性趋势，以及亚热带欧式热量的弱化。也发现<FC> SAM </ FC>和<FC> ENSO </ FC>具有统计上显着的线性关联 </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第6期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共13页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Nchaba Teboho&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Nchaba Teboho;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Mpholo Moeketsi&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Mpholo Moeketsi;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Lennard Chris&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Lennard Chris;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Climate System Analysis GroupUniversity of Cape TownSouth Africa;</p> <p>Materials Research and Engineering CenterUniversity of PennsylvaniaPhiladelphia PA USA;</p> <p>Climate System Analysis GroupUniversity of Cape TownSouth Africa;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=long‐term wind trends&option=203" rel="nofollow">long‐term wind trends;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=reanalysis&option=203" rel="nofollow">reanalysis;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=southern annular mode&option=203" rel="nofollow">southern annular mode;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=south Atlantic anticyclone&option=203" rel="nofollow">south Atlantic anticyclone;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=intertropical convergence zone&option=203" rel="nofollow">intertropical convergence zone;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=south easterly winds&option=203" rel="nofollow">south easterly winds;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=westerlies&option=203" rel="nofollow">westerlies;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：长期风趋势;再分析;南方环形模式;南大西洋抗岩;临界趋同区;东南风;韦斯特利; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul id="referencedaohang"> <li dataid="referenceul">参考文献</li> <li dataid="citationul">引证文献</li> <li dataid="commonreferenceul">共引文献</li> <li dataid="commoncitationul">同被引文献</li> <li dataid="tworeferenceul">二级参考文献</li> <li dataid="twocitationul">二级引证文献</li> </ul> </div> <div class="reference_details" id="referenceList"> <ul id="referenceul"></ul> <ul id="citationul"></ul> <ul id="commonreferenceul"></ul> <ul id="commoncitationul"></ul> <ul id="tworeferenceul"></ul> <ul id="twocitationul"></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704023002890.html">Long‐term austral summer wind speed trends over southern Africa</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Nchaba Teboho&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Nchaba Teboho,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Mpholo 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