Accessing vulnerability of land‐cover types to climate change using physical scaling downscaling model

Gaur Abhishek; Simonovic Slobodan P.

摘要

<fc>ABSTRACT</fc> xml:id="joc4887-para-0001"> The objective of this study is to investigate the vulnerability of different land‐cover types to climate change. To this end, land‐cover specific temperature change factors are quantified for the southern Saskatchewan region using a novel statistical downscaling model: physical scaling ( <fc>SP</fc> ). <fc>SP</fc> model considers large‐scale climate and regional physical characteristics like land‐cover, elevation in its formulation and hence can be used to predict future temperature for different land‐cover types under changing large‐scale climatic and land‐cover conditions. The model is validated by assessing its ability to downscale North American Regional Reanalysis ( <fc>NARR</fc> ) derived surface (skin) temperature from an initial resolution of 32?km to 500?m. The downscaled <fc>NARR</fc> data are evaluated using a cross‐validation approach over the period 2006–2013 with reference to <fc>MODerate</fc> ‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ( <fc>MODIS</fc> ) derived surface temperature estimates and satisfactory model performance is obtained (average <fc>RMSE</fc> ?=?0.03?K). The validated model is used to predict future surface temperature across the study region. Future land‐cover projections are derived by downscaling land‐use projections for Representative Concentration Pathways ( <fc>RCPs</fc> ) 2.6 and 8.5 made by integrated assessment models: <fc>IMAGE</fc> and <fc>MESSAGE</fc> , respectively. An analysis of land‐cover specific temperature changes between historical (2006–2013) and future (2081–2100) timelines indicate variations of up to 2?K between diff </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”xml：id =“joc4887-abs-abs-0001”> <标题类型=“main”> <fc>抽象</ FC> </ title> XML：ID =“JOC4887-PARA-0001”>本研究的目的是调查不同土地覆盖类型对气候变化的脆弱性。为此，使用新颖的统计缩小模型：物理缩放（<FC> SP </ FC>）为南部萨斯喀彻温班地区量化陆地覆盖特定温度变化因子。 <FC> SP </ FC>模型考虑了大规模的气候和区域物理特性，如陆地覆盖，其配方中的高度，因此可用于预测不同陆地覆盖类型的未来温度，在变化的大规模气候和土地下 - 条件。通过评估其降低北美区域重新分析（<FC> Narr </ Fc>）衍生表面（皮肤）温度的初始分辨率的初始分辨率来验证该模型。在2006 - 2013期间，参考<FC>中频</ FC> - 效果成像光谱仪（<FC> MODIS </ FC>）使用交叉验证方法评估较次电量的<FC> Narr </ FC>数据获得的表面温度估计和令人满意的模型性能（平均<FC> Rmse </ Fc>？= 0.03？K）。经过验证的模型用于预测研究区域的未来表面温度。未来的陆地覆盖投影是通过缩小用于代表性浓度途径的土地使用预测（<FC> RCPS </ FC>）2.6和8.5，通过综合评估模型制作：<FC>图像</ FC>和<FC>消息< / FC>分别。历史（2006-2013）与未来（2081-2100）与未来（2081-2100）之间的土地覆盖特定温度变化分析表明差异之间最多2？k的变化 </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第6期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共12页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Gaur Abhishek&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Gaur Abhishek;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Simonovic Slobodan P.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Simonovic Slobodan P.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Facility for Intelligent Decision Support Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringWestern UniversityLondon Canada;</p> <p>Facility for Intelligent Decision Support Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringWestern UniversityLondon Canada;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=land cover&option=203" rel="nofollow">land cover;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=physical scaling&option=203" rel="nofollow">physical scaling;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=forest cover&option=203" rel="nofollow">forest cover;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate change&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate change;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Saskatchewan&option=203" rel="nofollow">Saskatchewan;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：陆地封面;物理缩放;森林覆盖;气候变化;萨斯喀彻温省; 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