Observed changes in precipitation extremes and effects of tropical cyclones in South China during 1955-2013

摘要

Daily precipitation data from 21 Chinese Surface Stations for Global Exchange in South China and historical tracks of tropical cyclones (TCs) from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) during 1955-2013 are analysed to study changes in extreme precipitation and TC-related precipitation with respect to global mean temperature. On annual and seasonal bases, there have been significant enhancements in heavy precipitation and suppressions of light and moderate precipitation under global warming conditions. Except in winter, the enhancements in heavy precipitation dominate over the suppressions of light and moderate precipitation, leading to increases of seasonal total precipitation. A significant increase of consecutive dry-day episodes has been observed, especially in winter and early spring, which is detrimental to spring planting. The top 10% heavy precipitation associated with TCs has increased significantly under global warming conditions, despite a reduction in TC frequency. Finally, we find that TC-related precipitation per TC storm in South China has increased by an alarming rate of about 50% during the period of 1955-2013.