Trend Analysis of Precipitation Extreme Related to Climate Change in Province Sulawesi Selatan, Indonesia

摘要

Weather Extremes can cause natural phenomenon such as flood, drought, landslide, and storms. Some researchers showed that increasing temperature is related to heavy precipitation doe to the increased atmospheric water vapor and warmer air. In this study, we investigated characteristic of precipitation extreme related to climate chance in Province Sulawesi Selatan using Quantile Regression Model. Quantile value of 0.25 was used as representation of low level precipitation extreme as well as quantile value of 0.75 and 0.9 for high level precipitation extreme. Interior point method was used in parameter model estimation. Using daily rainfalls and temperature data at Tamangapa and Takalar stations for region with Monsoon precipitation pattern, Sukamaju and Salubarani stations for Equatorial precipitation pattern, stations of Biru Bone and Bulo-Bulo for Local precipitation pattern in Province Sulawesi Selatan, the results showed that low level precipitation extreme in all precipitation patterns have positive association with climate chance as well as for high level precipitation extreme which quantile value is 0.75. Meanwhile, for quantile value is 0.9, both of Salubarani and Bulo-Bulo showed negative association, and other stations have positive association.