Modeling of uncertainty for flood wave propagation induced by variations in initial and boundary conditions using expectation operator on explicit numerical solutions

Wu Shiang‐Jen; Hsu Chih‐Tsung

摘要

Abstract > This study proposes a framework for uncertainty analysis by incorporating explicit numerical solutions of governing equations for flood wave propagation with the expectation operator. It aims at effectively evaluating the effect of variations in initial and boundary conditions on the estimation of flood waves. Spatiotemporal semivariogram models are employed to quantify the correlation of the variables in time and space. The 1D nonlinear kinematic wave equation for the overland flow (named <fi>EVO_NS_KWE</fi> ) is applied in the model development. Model validation is made by comparison with the Monte Carlo simulation model in the calculation of statistical properties of model outputs (ie, flow depths), that is, the mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation. The results from the model validation show that the <fi>EVO_NS_KWE</fi> model can produce excellent approximations of the mean and less satisfactory approximations of the standard deviation and coefficient of variation compared with those obtained by using the Monte Carlo simulation model. It concludes that the uncertainties of flow depths in the domain are significantly affected by variations in the boundary condition. Future application of the <fi>EVO_NS_KWE</fi> model enables the evaluation of uncertainty in model outputs induced by the initial and boundary condition subject to uncertainty and will also provide corresponding probabilistic information for risk quantification method. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”xml：lang =“en”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >本研究提出了一种通过利用预期运营商的泛波传播的控制方程的明确数值解提供了一种不确定分析框架。它旨在有效地评估初始和边界条件的变化对洪波估计的影响。使用时空半变性造型造型模型来量化变量在时间和空间中的相关性。在模型开发中应用了用于覆盖流的1D非线性运动波方程（命名为<fi> evo_ns_kwe </ fi）。通过在计算模型输出（即流量深度）的统计特性计算中的蒙特卡罗仿真模型进行模型验证，即平均值，标准偏差和变化系数。模型验证的结果表明<fi> evo_ns_kwe </ fi>模型可以产生与通过使用蒙特卡罗模拟模型获得的标准偏差和变化系数的平均值和更少令人满意的近似值的近似值。得出结论，域中流动深度的不确定性受边界条件的变化显着影响。 <fi> evo_ns_kwe </ fi>模型的未来应用使得能够评估由不确定性的初始和边界条件引起的模型输出中的不确定性，并且还将提供对风险量化方法的相应概率信息。 </ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-20801/'>《International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第9期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共19页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wu Shiang‐Jen&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wu Shiang‐Jen;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Hsu Chih‐Tsung&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Hsu Chih‐Tsung;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>National Center for High‐Performance ComputingHsinchu 30076 Taiwan;</p> <p>National Center for High‐Performance ComputingHsinchu 30076 Taiwan;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/6940.html" title="工程数学">工程数学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=expectation operator&option=203" rel="nofollow">expectation operator;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=kinematic wave equation&option=203" rel="nofollow">kinematic wave equation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Monte Carlo simulation&option=203" rel="nofollow">Monte Carlo simulation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=uncertainty analysis&option=203" rel="nofollow">uncertainty analysis;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：期望运营商;运动波动型;蒙特卡罗模拟;不确定性分析; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul id="referencedaohang"> <li dataid="referenceul">参考文献</li> <li dataid="citationul">引证文献</li> <li dataid="commonreferenceul">共引文献</li> <li dataid="commoncitationul">同被引文献</li> <li dataid="tworeferenceul">二级参考文献</li> <li dataid="twocitationul">二级引证文献</li> </ul> </div> <div class="reference_details" id="referenceList"> <ul id="referenceul"></ul> <ul id="citationul"></ul> <ul id="commonreferenceul"></ul> <ul id="commoncitationul"></ul> <ul id="tworeferenceul"></ul> <ul id="twocitationul"></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704022969924.html">Modeling of uncertainty for flood wave propagation induced by variations in initial and 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initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：利用采集点创建表面数值模型的方法-通过找到实际模型的表面边界和边界上的几个点，使用采集系统和理论表面的数值表示，生成通过给定点的理论表面满足条件 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130454248803.html">Method for creating numerical models of surfaces using acquisition points - by finding boundary on surface of actual model and several points on boundary, using acquisition system and numerical representations of theoretical surface generates theoretical surface satisfying condition of passing through given points</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  IT1285749B1 </span> <span> . 1998-06-18</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：利用采集点创建表面数值模型的方法-通过找到实际模型的表面边界和边界上的几个点，使用采集系统和理论表面的数值表示，生成通过给定点的理论表面满足条件 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130416592290.html">DEVICE FOR MODELING OF THE PROCESS FOR ARRANGING OF THE SOLUTION B CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  RU2013114201A </span> <span> . 2014-10-10</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：用于确定不确定性的解决方案B条件的过程的设备 </span> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="theme cardcommon" style="overflow: auto;display:none"> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent55">相关主题</h3> <ul id="subject"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right rightcon"> <div class="details_img cardcommon clearfix" style="margin-bottom: 10px;display:none;" > </div> </div> </div> <div id="thesis_get_original1" class="downloadBth" style="bottom: 19px;z-index: 999;" onclick="ywcd('0704022969924','4',7,2,1,'',this,24)" class="delivery" prompt="010401" title="通过人工服务将文献原文发送至邮箱" >获取原文</div> <div class="journalsub-pop-up" style="display: none"> <div 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