Factors influencing the epidemiological characteristics of pandemic COVID 19: A TISM approach

摘要

The COVID 19 is a pandemic having an epidemic nature influencing the human health and economy in a global level. The major limitation to overcome the issue is the lack of potential vaccines or effective medicines to treat or control the disease. Considering the shortness of time to act, the purpose of the paper was to identify and categorise the climatic, socio-biological factors that influence the global super-spread of the epidemic using a theory building approach, 'Total Interpretive Structural Modelling' (TISM). MICMAC analysis of the identified factors, based on their interdependence categorized the triggering factors, air temperature, humidity, age, airflow and ventilation, responsible for the increased mortality rate of COVID 19 compared to SARS and MERS. So the model explains why the temperate countries of similar climatic zones and aged people are more vulnerable. It also predicts the susceptibility of countries based on their geographic locations and upcoming climatic conditions which were found to be influential in sustaining longevity and aerosol spread of the virus. Since many of these factors remain unaltered or out of human control, the linkage factors identified in this paper; change in host behaviour and number of contacts can be given priorities in order to overcome the situation. Furthermore, this is the first attempt made to understand epidemiological characteristics of COVID 19 using TISM approach.