Predicting farmers' adoption of genetically modified vegetable crops in India: An ex-ante assessment of Bt-brinjal adoption behaviour and its determinants

摘要

An ex-ante study was carried in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh during the year 2014-15 to assess the farmers' Bt-brinjal adoption decision and its determinants. Data was collected on the aspects of Bt-brinjal adoption decision and its potential determinants from 120 farmers. Adoption behaviour prediction model was developed using logistic regression. It was found that majority of farmers (61.67%) were willing to adopt Bt-brinjal, if released in future. It was also found that health risk perception (beta= -0.113, p < 0.01) and socio-economic risk perception (beta = -0.127, p = 0.02) negatively influence the farmers willingness to adopt Bt-brinjal, whereas past experience in cultivation of agrobiotech crops (beta = 2.01, p = 0.017) was found to have significant positive influence on adoption decision. Interestingly, factors like regulatory, ethical, environmental and biodiversity risk perception have no significant influence on the farmers' adoption decision for Bt-brinjal. Based on this study, we concluded that from policy perspective for successful adoption, genetically modified (GM) vegetable crops must be first introduced in the areas where GM crops (i.e. Bt-cotton) are already under cultivation and efforts should be made to reduce the health and socio-economic risk perception among the farmers.