India Indian Oil Demand Losing Its Shine

摘要

We have revised down our India oil demand forecast, refecting a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop and rising risks to growth. We now forecast demand growth to average 3.8% y-o-y over the three years to 2021, down from 4.6% previously. The softening in Indian fuels demand adds to an increasingly bearish outlook for fuels demand globally. We had previously fagged India as the outperformer, forecast to overtake China as the global engine for growth. While the view still holds in the longer term, the near-term prospects have weakened. More diversifed demand growth will ofer a level of resilience moving forward, but structurally lower demand growth in China and common Asian EM exposure to a weaker external environment will drag to the downside.