We have revised up our annual average forecast for Brent crude for 2020 and 2021, from USD40.0/bbl and USD49.0/bbl to USD44.0/bbl and USD51.0/bbl in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Demand is normalising at a faster pace than we had initially anticipated and this is being refected in shrinking refnery outages, frming crack spreads and rising crude throughput. Absent a meaningful reversal in the global economic recovery, our data signal a substantial tightening in the crude supply and demand balance over the second half of the year.
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