Optimization of sustainable bioenergy production considering energy-food-water-land nexus and livestock manure under uncertainty

摘要

Residual resources in agriculture provide prime raw material for bioenergy production whose optimization has potential to promote agricultural economy while mitigating environmental side-effects. Food, energy, water, and land resources are intertwined in agricultural systems. Effective management of bioenergy production, considering the nexus of these resources, is needed for the sustainable development of agriculture, which is challenging because of the uncertainties involved therein. This study proposes an optimization-assessment approach (input/output relationship) for sustainable bioenergy production in agricultural systems. The approach is capable of (1) providing decision makers with the ability to determine optimal policy options among water, land, energy, and livestock, considering the tradeoff between economic and environmental impacts for bioenergy production; (2) helping decision makers identify the level of sustainability of agricultural systems and where the effort should be made for various regions; and (3) dealing with the uncertainties to provide decision alternatives. The proposed approach is applied to a case study in the particular context of northeast China, which is predominantly an agricultural region with large bioenergy potential. The changing range of bioenergy production potential, system costs, and environmental impacts were obtained, based on different schemes for the allocation of agricultural resources among different regions. Economic-environmental impact and sensitivity analyses were conducted, and agricultural system sustainability was assessed in a changing environment. Considering the complexity due to uncertainty, the proposed approach can help manage bioenergy production in agricultural systems in a sustainable way, and will be applicable for similar agriculture-centered regions.