An Econometric Simultaneous Model for the Demand and Supply of Oils and Fats in Egypt

摘要

There are many essential nutrients that are essential to humans, such as oils and fats, protein and carbohydrates, found in many food groups such as meat and meat products, dairy products, poultry and fish products, fish, vegetables and fruits, cereals and legumes. These groups are important because they are the source of energy for the human body.The research highlighted the group of oils and fats in Egypt in particular. The problem of research is the existence of the food gap of oils and fats in Egypt, where the average food gap during the period (1995 2015) about 731.5 thousand tons. Which indicates that domestic production is unable to meet the local consumption of oil and fats, and therefore increase the import bill from that food group. It was therefore important to review the supply and demand of oils and lubricants in Egypt during the period (1995-2015).Therefore, the research aims to assess the most important factors affecting the demand and supply side of the group of oils and fats in Egypt, which helps to reach an attempt to reduce the food gap of these basic food products for the Egyptian individual. The research reached:* The research found that the most important factors affecting the production of oils and fats in Egypt andhave a direct impact during the period (1995 to 2015) are the area of peanuts, sesame area and the price of soybeans.* The most important factors affecting the consumption of oils and fats in Egypt and have a direct impactduring the period (1995 2015) are both the quantity of imports of oils and fats, and the retail price of oils and fats and the relationship has the opposite effect.* The most important factors affecting the quantity of exports of oils and fats in Egypt and have a directimpact during the period (1995 - 2015) are both the price of export and the amount of production of oils and fats.* The most important factors affecting the quantity of imports of oils and fats in Egypt and have a directimpact during the period (1995 - 2015) are both the Egyptian national income and the average per capita Egyptian.* An econometric model of oil and fats supply and demand functions was measured in Egypt during theperiod (19952015). The supply functions were represented in the production and exports of oils and fats in Egypt, while the demand functions for individual consumption were imports of oils and fats in Egypt. The most important factors affecting the estimated production of oil and fats in Egypt and have a direct impact is the estimated amount of exports and the area of peanuts. The most important factors affecting the amount of exports estimated from oil and fats and have a palliative effect are the export price of oils and the estimated quantity of oils and fats during the study period. The most important factors affecting the demand side represented in the average estimated per capita consumption were both the quantity of imports estimated and havinga direct impact, and the retail price of oils was the reverse. The most important factors influencing the quantity of imports estimated and having a positive impact were both the Egyptian national income and the estimated average Egyptian consumption.* The average estimated values of the estimated model variables have been predicted. It is expected thatduring the period (2019-2024) the average quantity produced, the quantity of exports, average per capita consumption, the quantity of imports will reach about 272.7 thousand tons, 212.4 thousand tons, 12.79 kg / person, 1402.41 thousand Ton respectively.