The role of phenology in the climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for tree crops: a case study on almond orchards in Southern Europe

摘要

The assessment of the impact of climate change on Mediterranean crop systems is affected by a large number of uncertainties. To overcome this issue in an impact and adaptation assessment for tree crops, an experimental dataset containing 556 phenological observations was used to calibrate and validate a modelling framework based on the Dynamic Model and ASYMCUR approach, for assessing the flowering date of common Mediterranean almond cultivars. Data were collected over 12 years for 15 almond cultivars in 5 locations in Andalusia (Southern Spain), covering a wide range of weather conditions. The model performance was good: for late-flowering cultivars Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was 3.6 days and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) was 0.89, while for early-flowering cultivars RMSE was 3.4 days and NSE was 0.83.