Agent-based modelling of wind damage processes and patterns in forests

摘要

Powerful storms, consisting of strong gusts and winds, damage forests. Therefore, foresters need forest management strategies to reduce the damage risk. This paper focused on the damage patterns within the forest as the final results of multiple tree-wind dynamic interactions in time and space during a storm. Recent developments in computer technology allow for the possibility of simulating the complex and dynamic phenomena of damage during a storm but are extremely time consuming. To simplify the simulations without losing the crucial aspects of wind damage in forests, we introduced a computer simulation model using the agent-based modelling (ABM) technique, which capture the phenomena and interactions of individuals called 'agents'. We created an ABM for forest wind damage simulation, coupling together an accepted understanding of wind gusts in forests, tree bending moments, and damage propagation. The model was tested with variations in three conditions: trees acclimated and unacclimated to their wind environment; three levels of gust strength; and three tree planting densities. The ABM was able to replicate damage patterns and demonstrate damage propagation within the forest and the effects of forest edges. The difference in the rate of damage in the forest between acclimated and unacclimated edges became similar with an increase in the gust intensity, and a decrease in tree density through a reduction in the shelter effect of the forest. The ABM could be improved in the future by parametrizing the variation in individual tree resistance, and the variation in gust and wind strength, as well as adding more information on local environmental conditions such as topography and soil variation, and storm characteristics such as duration and intensity.