Convective Cloud Model for Analyzing of Heavy Rainfall of Weather Extreme at Semarang Indonesia

摘要

Rainfall in Tembalang Semarang 2–3 July 2016 causes flood. The accumulation of rainfall until 3 July 2016 is 182.5 mm, it exceeds BMKG’s threshold about intensity of extreme condition, that more than 50 mm/day. It is related to dynamic of weather’s parameter, especiallywith convection process and clouds. In this case, weather condition analysis uses Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model one domain with 6 kilometer (km) resolution. Some weather’s parameters show significant result. Their fluctuations prove there is a strong convection that producesconvective cloud (Cumulonimbus) so that cloud has a long lifetime and produce rain. Default setting and without nesting on WRF Model show good output to represent weather’s condition commonly. Difference between output rainfall rate of observation result and output of model around 6–12hours is because spinning-up of processing. Satellite Images of MTSAT (Multifunctional Transport Satellite) are used as a verification data to prove the result of WRF. The cloud cover from data MTSAT IR 1 Kochi University that indicates there is cloud’s top for Kochi University. Thisimage consolidate that the output of WRF is good enough to analyze Semarang condition when the case happened.