Management options for dairy farms under climate change: Effects of intensification, adaptation and simplification on pastures, milk production and profitability

摘要

There are few holistic analyses of agricultural systems that inclusively consider how the combination of gradual climate change and increased frequencies of extreme climatic events influence biophysical variables as well as economic returns. Here we examine how climate change to 2040 influences pasture growth rates, grazed pasture harvested (PH) and profitability of three case study (baseline) farms in southern Australia. We applied 'development options' (or adaptations) to baseline farms in each region that either intensified, simplified or modified the seasonal distribution of feed supply (Intensify, Simplify or Adapt, respectively) by manipulating several components of the farm system simultaneously, including herd size, liveweight and farm assets.