MODELLING OF MICROBIAL GROWTH DURING COLD STORAGE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS: A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH

摘要

An existing dynamical mathematical model for microbial growth and inactivation in agricultural products under time-varying temperature conditions is modified to account for the observed variability between replicate growth curves. The key feature of the modified model is a random variable parameter representing the physiological state of the inoculum. The model parameters were estimated from a collection of 31 growth and inactivation curves of the organism Brochothrix thermosphacta in constant temperature conditions. It was shown that the random variable parameter could be modeled after transformation by means of an exponential probability density function.