Predictive Model and Probabilistic Assessment of Sliding Displacement for Regional Scale Seismic Landslide Hazard Estimation in Iran

摘要

A semiempirical model is presented to predict earthquake-induced sliding displacement of earth slopes based on earthquake records of the Iran plateau. The earthquake database selected for the analyses contains 3319 records (of two horizontal components) of ground acceleration relative to 738 earthquakes that occurred in Iran. The predictive model is a function of Arias intensity, yield acceleration coefficient, and the slip length of sliding mass. The performance of the proposed model was tested by comparing its predictions with those of other regional and global models. As an example of possible application of the proposed model, fragility curves are presented, which were calculated according to three damage levels.