Distribution patterns of bats in the Eastern Mediterranean Region througha climate change perspective

摘要

The impact of climate change on different species has been analyzed many times in various geographical areas. However, some areas still have a large knowledge gap while harbouring significant levels of biodiversity. The main aim of this study was to determine how climate change will affect 16 different bat species in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Using presence only modelling techniques and relevant bioclimatic data forecasts according to two different climate change scenarios (A2A and B2A) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the potential geographic distribution of bat species in the eastern Mediterranean region for the current period and the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 were modelled. The results suggest that climate change can affect bats negatively throughout the 21st century in the studied area on two fronts: i) species richness will deteriorate, and ii) the total area occupied by bats will decline. These impacts are likely to be more severely observed in Turkey's coastalareas, northwest Turkey, Red Sea coasts, Israel, and the west of Syria and Jordan. Using only bioclimatic variables as factors, and thus not using any land cover (or habitat) data, was the main limitation of the study. Hence the models and results of the study present 'best case' scenarios.