Analyzing climate change impacts on water resources under uncertainty using an integrated simulation-optimization approach

摘要

Highlights?An integrated simulation-optimization approach is developed.?Increase trends of minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation exist.?Climate change impacts contain multiple factors with complicated uncertainties.AbstractAn integrated simulation-optimization (ISO) approach is developed for assessing climate change impacts on water resources. In the ISO, uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions can be reflected. Moreover, ISO permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. A snowmelt-precipitation-driven watershed (Kaidu watershed) in northwest China is selected as the study case for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method. Results of meteorological projections disclose that the incremental trend of temperature (e.g., minimum and maximum values) and precipitation exist. Results also reveal that (i) the system uncertainti