Demographic entrapment is preventing Africa from reaching MDG1

摘要

Gretchen Stevens and colleagues (Sept 1, p 824), in their study of progress towards Millennium Development Goal 1 (MDG 1), note that the probability of sub-Saharan Africa reaching it is "virtually zero". This is because many African communities are demographically trapped-ie, they are exceeding the carrying capacities of their ecosystems, with nowhere to go and with insufficient exports to exchange for food and other essentials. African populations have quadrupled since 1950, and are expected to more than double again by 2050. Most mothers still have more than five children; in Uganda, where the government is still pronatalist, they have an average of 6.2.