Quantifying the Potential for Snow-Ice Formation in the Arctic Ocean

摘要

We examine the regional variations and long-term changes of the potential for snow-ice formation for level Arctic sea ice from 1980 to 2016. We use daily sea ice motion data and implement a 1-D snow/ice thermodynamic model that follows the ice trajectories while forcing the simulations with Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. We find there is potential for snow-ice formation in level ice over most of the Arctic Ocean; this is true since the 1980s. In addition, the regional variations are very strong. The largest potential is typically found in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, particularly in the Greenland Sea, where precipitation is highest. We surmise that, in addition to the annual amount of solid precipitation, potential for snow-ice formation is controlled by two main factors: the initial second-year/multiyear ice thickness in the autumn and the timing of first-year ice formation.