Analyses Through the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution Identify Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to Rainfall Extremes in the Eastern United States

摘要

Tropical cyclones (TCs) generate extreme precipitation with severe impacts across large coastal and inland areas, calling for accurate frequency estimation methods. Statistical approaches that take into account the physical mechanisms responsible for these extremes can help reduce the estimation uncertainty. Here we formulate a mixed-population Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution explicitly incorporating non-TC and TC-induced rainfall and evaluate its implications on long series of daily rainfall for six major U.S. urban areas impacted by these storms. We find statistically significant differences between the distributions of TC- and non-TC-related precipitation; moreover, including mixtures of distributions improves the estimation of the probability of extreme precipitation where TCs occur more frequently. These improvements are greater when rainfall aggregated over durations longer than one day are considered.