Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends

Kostov Yavor; Ferreira David; Armour Kyle C.; Marshall John

摘要

Abstract >We examine the 1979–2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models' inability to reproduce the observed 1979–2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step‐response functions, we skillfully reconstruct the models' 1979–2014 SO SST trends. Consistent with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole and the seasonality of SO stratification, the summer and fall SAM exert a large impact on the simulated SO SST trends. We further identify conditions that favor multidecadal SO cooling: (1) a weak SO warming response to GHG forcing, (2) a strong multidecadal SO cooling response to a positive SAM trend, and (3) a historical SAM trend as strong as in observations. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract type =“main”xml：lang =“en”xml：id =“grl56859-abs-abs-0001”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >我们检查1979-2014南海（所以）在耦合通用循环模型的集合中模拟的海表面温度（SST）趋势，并评估模型无法再现1979-2014的模型的可能原因。对于每个模型，我们估计STSST的响应，以在南方环形模式（SAM）的季节性指数中和在南方环形模式（SAM）的季节性指标中的响应。使用这些阶跃响应函数，我们巧妙地重建了1979-2014的模型所以SST趋势。符合南极臭氧孔的季节性签名和如此分层的季节性，夏季和秋季山姆对模拟的SST趋势产生了很大的影响。我们进一步识别有利于多视长性所以冷却的条件：（1）对温室气体强迫的弱化反应，（2）强烈的MultiDecadal如此冷却响应对阳性阶层的趋势，（3）历史阶段趋势与观察中的历史阶段趋势。</ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第2期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共12页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kostov Yavor&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Kostov Yavor;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Ferreira David&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Ferreira David;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Armour Kyle C.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Armour Kyle C.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Marshall John&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Marshall John;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of PhysicsUniversity of OxfordOxford UK;</p> <p>Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReading UK;</p> <p>School of Oceanography and Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of WashingtonSeattle WA USA;</p> <p>Department of Earth Atmospheric and Planetary SciencesMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyCambridge MA USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Southern Ocean&option=203" rel="nofollow">Southern Ocean;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=CMIP5&option=203" rel="nofollow">CMIP5;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Southern Annular Mode&option=203" rel="nofollow">Southern Annular Mode;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=greenhouse gas forcing&option=203" rel="nofollow">greenhouse gas forcing;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate variability&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate variability;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=ozone forcing&option=203" rel="nofollow">ozone forcing;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：南海;CMIP5;南方环形模式;温室气体强迫;气候变异;臭氧强迫; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704019851731.html">Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kostov Yavor&option=202" target="_blank" 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