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Medium‐Range Forecast Skill for Extraordinary Arctic Cyclones in Summer of 2008–2016

机译：2008 - 2016年夏季非凡北极旋风的中等预测技能

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Abstract >Arctic cyclones (ACs) are a severe atmospheric phenomenon that affects the Arctic environment. This study assesses the forecast skill of five leading operational medium‐range ensemble forecasts for 10 extraordinary ACs that occurred in summer during 2008–2016. Average existence probability of the predicted ACs was 0.9 at lead times of ≤3.5?days. Average central position error of the predicted ACs was less than half of the mean radius of the 10 ACs (469.1?km) at lead times of 2.5–4.5?days. Average central pressure error of the predicted ACs was 5.5–10.7?hPa at such lead times. Therefore, the operational ensemble prediction systems generally predict the position of ACs within 469.1?km 2.5–4.5?days before they mature. The forecast skill for the extraordinary ACs is lower than that for midlatitude cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere but similar to that in the Southern Hemisphere. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >北极旋风（ACS）是一种严重的大气现象，影响北极环境。本研究评估了2008 - 2016年夏季发生的10个非凡ACS的五个主要运营中等范围集合预测的预测技能。预测ACS的平均存在概率为＆ 0.9在≤3.5的铅次时。预测的AC的平均中心位置误差在2.5-4.5的前列时间内的10 ACS（469.1 km）的平均半径的一半。预测ACS的平均中央压力误差为5.5-10.7？HPA在此类交货时间。因此，操作集合预测系统通常预测AC的位置在469.1 km 2.5-4.5内的位置。它们成熟前的天数。非凡ACS的预测技能低于北半球的中间旋风，但与南半球相似。</ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第9期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共9页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Yamagami Akio&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Yamagami Akio;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Matsueda Mio&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Matsueda Mio;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Tanaka Hiroshi L.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Tanaka Hiroshi L.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Center for Computational SciencesUniversity of TsukubaTsukuba Japan;</p> <p>Center for Computational SciencesUniversity of TsukubaTsukuba Japan;</p> <p>Center for Computational SciencesUniversity of TsukubaTsukuba Japan;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Arctic cyclone&option=203" rel="nofollow">Arctic cyclone;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=medium‐range ensemble forecast&option=203" rel="nofollow">medium‐range ensemble forecast;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=forecast skill&option=203" rel="nofollow">forecast skill;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=predictability&option=203" rel="nofollow">predictability;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：北极旋风;中等范围集合预测;预测技能;可预测性; 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