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Simple Physical Model for the Probability of a Subduction‐ Zone Earthquake Following Slow Slip Events and Earthquakes: Application to the Hikurangi Megathrust, New Zealand

机译：缓冲事件与地震潜水区地震概率的简单物理模型：对新西兰Hikurangi Megathrust的应用

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Abstract > Slow slip events (SSEs) have been documented in subduction zones worldwide, yet their implications for future earthquake occurrence are not well understood. Here we develop a relatively simple, simulation‐based method for estimating the probability of megathrust earthquakes following tectonic events that induce any transient stress perturbations. This method has been applied to the locked Hikurangi megathrust (New Zealand) surrounded on all sides by the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake and SSEs. Our models indicate the annual probability of a M ≥7.8 earthquake over 1?year after the Kaikoura earthquake increases by 1.3–18 times relative to the pre‐Kaikoura probability, and the absolute probability is in the range of 0.6–7%. We find that probabilities of a large earthquake are mainly controlled by the ratio of the total stressing rate induced by all nearby tectonic sources to the mean stress drop of earthquakes. Our method can be applied to evaluate the potential for triggering a megathrust earthquake following SSEs in other subduction zones. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><抽象类型= “主要” 的xml：LANG = “en” 的XML：ID = “grl57338-ABS-0001”> <标题类型= “主”>抽象</ TITLE> <P>慢滑动事件（SSE的）已在全球范围内记录，但他们对未来地震发生的影响并不充分了解。在这里，我们开发了一种相对简单，基于仿真的方法，用于估计促使任何瞬态应力扰动的构造事件之后的巨大地震的概率。该方法已被应用于锁定的Hikurangi Megathrust（新西兰），由2016年Kaikoura地震和SSES周围环绕着。我们的模型表明，在Kaikoura地震的增加率增加1.3-18倍相对于kaikoura的概率增加1.3-18倍后，我们的模型表明了1-7.8°的概率增加了1.3-18倍，并且绝对概率在范围内0.6-7％。我们发现大地震的概率主要受到所有附近构造源引起的总压力速率与地震的平均应力下降的比率的控制。我们的方法可以应用于评估在其他俯冲区域触发SSE之后触发Megathrust地震的可能性。 </ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第9期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共10页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kaneko Yoshihiro&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Kaneko Yoshihiro;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wallace Laura M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wallace Laura M.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Hamling Ian J.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Hamling Ian J.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Gerstenberger Matthew C.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Gerstenberger Matthew C.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>GNS ScienceLower Hutt New Zealand;</p> <p>GNS ScienceLower Hutt New Zealand;</p> <p>GNS ScienceLower Hutt New Zealand;</p> <p>GNS ScienceLower Hutt New Zealand;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=subduction zones&option=203" rel="nofollow">subduction zones;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=earthquake probability&option=203" rel="nofollow">earthquake probability;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=slow slip events&option=203" rel="nofollow">slow slip events;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=earthquake simulations&option=203" rel="nofollow">earthquake simulations;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=megathrust earthquakes&option=203" rel="nofollow">megathrust earthquakes;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：俯冲区;地震概率;慢速赛事;地震模拟;巨大的地震; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704019851387.html">Simple Physical Model for the Probability of a Subduction‐ Zone Earthquake Following Slow Slip Events and Earthquakes: Application to the Hikurangi Megathrust, New Zealand</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kaneko Yoshihiro&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Kaneko Yoshihiro,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wallace Laura M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Wallace Laura M.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Hamling Ian J.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Hamling Ian J.,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-23539/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Geophysical Research Letters .</a> <span>2018</span><span>,第9期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：缓冲事件与地震潜水区地震概率的简单物理模型：对新西兰Hikurangi Megathrust的应用</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704019850359.html">Slow slip events and the 2016 Te Araroa <i >MM <sub > w </sub> <i >ww 7.1 earthquake interaction: Northern Hikurangi subduction, New Zealand</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Koulali A.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Koulali A.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=McClusky S.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">McClusky S.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wallace L.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Wallace L.,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-23539/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Geophysical Research Letters .</a> <span>2017</span><span>,第16期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：慢速运动事件和2016 Te araroa m </ i> m <sub> w </ s> w 7.1地震互动：北部Hikurangi俯冲，新的 西兰</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704025591558.html">Earthquakes and Tremor Linked to Seamount Subduction During Shallow Slow Slip at the Hikurangi Margin, New Zealand</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Todd Erin K.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Todd Erin K.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Schwartz Susan Y.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Schwartz Susan Y.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Mochizuki Kimihiro&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Mochizuki Kimihiro,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-34677/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Journal of geophysical research. 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href="/academic-degree-domestic_mphd_thesis/020311377302.html">高速铁路简支箱梁桥的概率地震需求模型及地震易损性分析</a> <b>[A] </b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=吴云丹&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 吴云丹</a> <span> . 2017</span> </span> </div> </li> </ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06120112426389.html">一种制备地震物理模型的组合物、地震物理模型及制备和建造方法</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN112442254A </span> <span> . 2021-03-05</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06120112426369.html">一种制备地震物理模型的组合物、地震物理模型及制备和建造方法</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN112442274A </span> <span> . 2021-03-05</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130419218537.html">METHOD TO PREDICT EARTHQUAKES IN ACTIVE ZONES OF SUBDUCTION</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利： <!-- 俄罗斯专利： --> RU2478993C2 </span> <span> . 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