Attribution of Observed Streamflow Changes in Key British Columbia Drainage Basins

Najafi Mohammad Reza; Zwiers Francis W.; Gillett Nathan P.

摘要

Abstract >We study the observed decline in summer streamflow in four key river basins in British Columbia (BC), Canada, using a formal detection and attribution (D&A) analysis procedure. Reconstructed and simulated streamflow is generated using the semidistributed variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model, which is driven by 1/16° gridded observations and downscaled climate model data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), respectively. The internal variability of the regional hydrologic components using ~5100?years of streamflow was simulated using CMIP5 preindustrial control runs. Results show that the observed changes in summer streamflow are inconsistent with simulations representing the responses to natural forcing factors alone, while the response to anthropogenic and natural forcing factors combined is detected in these changes. A two‐signal D&A analysis indicates that the effects of anthropogenic (ANT) forcing factors are discernable from natural forcing in BC, albeit with large uncertainties. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><抽象类型=“主” XML：LANG =“EN”> <标题类型=“主”>摘要</ title> >我们研究了夏季径流在不列颠哥伦比亚省（BC）的明显下降，四个重点流域，加拿大，使用正式检测和归因（d＆安培; A）分析过程。重构和模拟水流使用semidistributed可变渗透能力水文模型，其为1/16从耦合模式项目相5（CMIP5）分别驱动°网格化观测和缩小的气候模型数据，生成的。利用〜5100？年径流量的使用CMIP5工业化前的控制运行模拟的区域水文组件的内部变化。结果表明，在夏季的径流观察到的变化是与表示于单独自然强迫因子的响应模拟不一致，而在这些变化被检测到和自然强迫因子的响应相结合。的两信号d＆安培; A分析表明，人为（ANT）的强制因素的影响是从自然与较大的不确定性迫使BC，尽管可辨别</ p> </抽象> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第21期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共9页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Najafi Mohammad Reza&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Najafi Mohammad Reza;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Zwiers Francis W.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Zwiers Francis W.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Gillett Nathan P.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Gillett Nathan P.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Pacific Climate Impacts ConsortiumUniversity of VictoriaVictoria BC Canada;</p> <p>Pacific Climate Impacts ConsortiumUniversity of VictoriaVictoria BC Canada;</p> <p>Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and AnalysisEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaVictoria BC Canada;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=detection and attribution&option=203" rel="nofollow">detection and attribution;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=summer streamflow&option=203" rel="nofollow">summer streamflow;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=variable infiltration capacity&option=203" rel="nofollow">variable infiltration capacity;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate change&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate change;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=downscaling&option=203" rel="nofollow">downscaling;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：检测和归因;夏季流流;可变渗透能力;气候变化;缩小; 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