Definition of Extreme El Ni?o and Its Impact on Projected Increase in Extreme El Ni?o Frequency

Cai Wenju; Wang Guojian; Santoso Agus; Lin Xiaopei; Wu Lixin

摘要

Abstract > During extreme El Ni?o events, the Intertropical Convergence Zone moves to the normally cold and dry east equatorial Pacific, resulting in a nonlinear rainfall increase with sea surface temperature in the region. An arbitrary threshold value of boreal winter total rainfall (e.g., 5?mm?d ?1 ) in the east equatorial Pacific was used by previous studies to capture this feature. Under greenhouse warming, the frequency of extreme El Ni?o events is projected to increase, so is the mean east equatorial Pacific rainfall. Is the projected frequency increase a consequence of the mean rainfall increase? We show that the projection is not significantly influenced by the increased mean rainfall. Instead, the increased frequency accounts for approximately 50% of the mean rainfall increase. Using upward atmospheric vertical velocity for defining extreme El Ni?o reaffirms the conclusion that the increased frequency results from increased probability of atmospheric deep convection, as the eastern equatorial Pacific warms faster than the surrounding regions. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”> Abstract </ title> >在Extreme El Ni？O事件期间，闭间收敛区移动到正常冷和干燥东赤道太平洋，导致该地区海表面温度增加了非线性降雨量。在以前的研究中使用了前冬季总降雨（例如，5？MM？D <SUP> 1 1）的任意阈值被前面的研究用于捕获此功能。在温室变暖下，Extreme El Ni的频率预计会增加，因此是卑鄙的赤道太平洋降雨。预计频率是否会增加平均降雨量的后果？我们表明投影不会受到增加的平均降雨量的显着影响。相反，增加的频率占平均降雨量的大约50％。利用向上的大气垂直速度来定义极端el ni？o重申得出的结论是，随着东部赤道太平洋的概率增加，频率增加的频率增加，因为东部赤道太平洋比周围地区更快。 </ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第21期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共7页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Cai Wenju&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Cai Wenju;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wang Guojian&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wang Guojian;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Santoso Agus&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Santoso Agus;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Lin Xiaopei&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Lin Xiaopei;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wu Lixin&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wu Lixin;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMSTOcean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao China;</p> <p>Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMSTOcean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao China;</p> <p>Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans ResearchCSIRO Oceans and AtmosphereHobart Tasmania Australia;</p> <p>Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMSTOcean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao China;</p> <p>Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMSTOcean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and TechnologyQingdao China;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=extreme El Ni?o&option=203" rel="nofollow">extreme El Ni?o;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：极度孩子; 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