Modeling the Response of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden and Zachariae Isstr?m Glaciers, Greenland, to Ocean Forcing Over the Next Century

Choi Y.; Morlighem M.; Rignot E.; Mouginot J.; Wood M.

摘要

Abstract >Recent studies have shown that the Northeast Greenland Ice Sheet region has been undergoing significant acceleration and dynamic thinning since 2010, and these changes are closely related to regional atmospheric and oceanic warming. Here we model the response of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (79North) and Zachariae Isstr?m (ZI) to ocean forcing to investigate their evolution over the coming decades. Our model suggests that 79North will retreat slowly over the next century, whereas ZI will lose its floating ice tongue completely and retreat rapidly for 70?years. After 70?years, ZI will stabilize 30?km upstream of its current position on a topographic ridge. Frontal melt rates need to reach 6?m/d in the summer to dislodge the glacier from this ridge. ZI will then continue a fast and unstoppable retreat, contributing more than 16.2?mm to global sea level rise by 2100. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”XML：ID =“Grl56597-Abs-Abs-0001”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >最近的研究表明，格陵兰东北部自2010年以来，冰板地区经历了显着的加速和动态变薄，这些变化与区域大气和海洋变暖密切相关。在这里，我们模拟Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden（79北）和Zachariae Isstr？M（ZI）的响应，以海洋强迫在未来几十年中调查他们的演变。我们的模特表明，在下个世纪79北将慢慢地撤退，而Zi将彻底失去浮动冰舌，并迅速恢复70岁。在70岁之后，ZI将在其当前位置的上游稳定在地形脊上的30 km。夏天需要达到6？M / D的额度熔化率向冰川脱离冰川。然后ZI将继续快速和不可阻挡的撤退，贡献超过16.2毫秒的全球海平面上升2100。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第21期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共9页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Choi Y.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Choi Y.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Morlighem M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Morlighem M.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Rignot E.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Rignot E.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Mouginot J.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Mouginot J.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wood M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wood M.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvine CA USA;</p> <p>Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvine CA USA;</p> <p>Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvine CA USA;</p> <p>Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvine CA USA;</p> <p>Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvine CA USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=glaciology&option=203" rel="nofollow">glaciology;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=calving&option=203" rel="nofollow">calving;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=ocean thermal forcing&option=203" rel="nofollow">ocean thermal forcing;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=inverse modeling&option=203" rel="nofollow">inverse modeling;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=northeast Greenland&option=203" rel="nofollow">northeast Greenland;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=higher‐order model&option=203" rel="nofollow">higher‐order model;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：冰川学;产犊;海洋热迫使;反向建模;格陵兰东北部;高阶模型; 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