Stratospheric Ozone Depletion: An Unlikely Driver of the Regional Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice in Austral Fall in the Late Twentieth Century

Landrum Laura L.; Holland Marika M.; Raphael Marilyn N.; Polvani Lorenzo M.

摘要

Abstract >It has been suggested that recent regional trends in Antarctic sea ice might have been caused by the formation of the ozone hole in the late twentieth century. Here we explore this by examining two ensembles of a climate model over the ozone hole formation period (1955–2005). One ensemble includes all known historical forcings; the other is identical except for ozone levels, which are fixed at 1955 levels. We demonstrate that the model is able to capture, on interannual and decadal timescales, the observed statistical relationship between summer Amundsen Sea Low strength (when ozone loss causes a robust deepening) and fall sea ice concentrations (when observed trends are largest). In spite of this, the modeled regional trends caused by ozone depletion are found to be almost exactly opposite to the observed ones. We deduce that the regional character of observed sea ice trends is likely not caused by ozone depletion. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >已提出，最近南极海冰的区域趋势可能是由地层造成的二十世纪末的臭氧洞。在这里，我们通过在臭氧孔形成时段（1955-2005）上检查气候模型的两个集合来探索这一点。一体合奏包括所有已知的历史强制;除臭氧水平外，另一个是相同的，这些臭氧水平固定在1955级。我们证明该模型能够在际和截止划分时间尺寸捕获，观察到的夏季Amundsen海洋低强度（当臭氧损失引起强大的深化）和秋季冰浓度（观察到的趋势最大时）之间观察到的统计关系。尽管如此，发现由臭氧耗尽引起的建模区域趋势与观察到的渗透率几乎完全相反。我们推导出观察海冰趋势的区域特征可能不会因臭氧消耗而造成的。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第21期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共9页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Landrum Laura L.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Landrum Laura L.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Holland Marika M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Holland Marika M.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Raphael Marilyn N.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Raphael Marilyn N.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Polvani Lorenzo M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Polvani Lorenzo M.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder CO USA;</p> <p>National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder CO USA;</p> <p>University of CaliforniaLos Angeles CA USA;</p> <p>National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder CO USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Antarctic sea ice trends&option=203" rel="nofollow">Antarctic sea ice trends;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=stratrospheric ozone depletion&option=203" rel="nofollow">stratrospheric ozone depletion;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Amundsen Sea Low&option=203" rel="nofollow">Amundsen Sea Low;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：南极海冰趋势;Stratropheric臭氧消耗;Amundsen海低; 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