A stochastic dynamic programming approach to analyze adaptation to climate change – Application to groundwater irrigation in India

摘要

Highlights?Uncertainty and risk significantly influence farmers’ decisions.?Farmer decisions are modeled by a stochastic dynamic programming approach.?Farmer decisions concern investment in irrigation, crop choice, irrigation strategy.?Water management policies under climate change scenarios are investigated.AbstractAgricultural sustainability under climate change is a major challenge in semi-arid countries, mainly because of over-exploited water resources. This article explores short- and long-term consequences of farmers’ adaptation decisions on groundwater resource use, under several climate change scenarios. We model farmer decisions on crop choice, investment in irrigation and water application rates, using a stochastic dynamic programming model with embedded year and season decision stages. Several sources of risk are considered that may impact far