Demand headwinds blow in fourth quarter

摘要

The emergence of a second wave of Covid-19 infections in the Atlantic basin is casting a cloud over the global oil demand outlook. In Europe, the US, Russia and the Middle East, the number of new cases is on the rise and governments are moving to control the pace of infection. In most cases, eforts are falling short of national lockdowns, but these could be imple-mented if the outlook deteriorates — in which case global oil demand will sufer. Argus Consulting is assuming a relatively muted impact on demand relative to the second-quarter collapse — more of a ripple than a wave. Quarter-on-quarter demand growth is now expected at 280,000 b/d in October-December, down from the previous projection of 1.9mn b/d. The downward revision puts fourth-quarter demand 6.83mn b/d lower than a year earlier and the demand fall for the year as a whole at 8.9mn b/d.