SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR COTTON

摘要

World cotton production declined by 1% to 26.3 million tons in 2007/08, and a further decline of 5% to 24.9 million tons is expected in 2008/09. This will be the first time in five seasons that world production reaches less than 25 million tons, but production will still remain much higher than pre-2004/05 levels. Both world cotton area and yield are expected to decline in 2008/09. Despite a significant increase in international cotton prices in 2007/08, world cotton area is decreasing by 4% in 2008/09 to 32.1 million hectares due to increased competition from other crops in many countries. The world yield is expected to decline by 2% to 775 kilograms per hectare from the record reached in 2007/08, mainly due to less favorable weather. However it would remain the second highest yield up to date, sustained by progress in crop management, better seed varieties, as well as the adoption of new technologies.