...with tentative signs of improvement on the horizon

摘要

Signs are slowly emerging that the European economies are beginning to recover, with economic confidence indicators showing that manufacturing activity has stabilised following 11 months of contraction. While this improvement in economic sentiment appears to have been filtering through to the flat rolled sector of the aluminium semis industry, it has yet to be reflected significantly in the extrusions industry. Stocks have been run down to a minimum and with no definitive outlook for demand emerging as yet, market participants are ordering only to suit their needs. This situation has been further exacerbated as capacity is readily available and lead times are technical. As a consequence, consumers are still able to wait until the last moment before placing their orders. However this is having a detrimental effect on the small extruders who are struggling to find orders to fill their shifts.In Germany, the construction sector continues to weigh heavily on the extrusion market. Demand from this segment of the market remains in the doldrums, and with the German construction production index showing a 5.2 percent decline in January year-on-year, prospect are still weak. However, the decline in manufacturing output now appears to have ended. Extruders in Germany have reported that over the past month orders have stabilized, albeit at low levels. Furthermore, with positive signs emerging form the USA, demand prospects from this segment of the extrusion market are improving, although market participants do not anticipate that these will filter through before the second half of the year.