Outlook: Cathode scarcity to support H1 price

摘要

With the refined market balance playing out over the last nine months broadly along the lines CRU had been expecting, we see no reason to amend our long-held expectation of a modest net surplus for 2014. We concur with wider market expectations of a large cathode surplus hitting the market in the medium term, but our projections indicate that this will only begin to feed through from H2 this year. The story of H1 is expected to be one that is supportive of prices, albeit with upside limitations as storm clouds remain on the horizon.