The market outlook

摘要

The market surplus for this year is forecast at 105,000 tonnes, larger than presented in our last market outlook report. The increase represents a combination of lower demand as the stainless industry shows no signs of post-summer pick-up and continued strength in NPI production. In 2014, the market will remain oversupplied by around 49,000 tonnes. We have assumed there is minimal disruption to ore supply from Indonesia and thus NPI production. However, this remains the main uncertainty for the outlook. At present we are forecasting the LME 3 month price to average $ 15,181 /t ($6.9/lb) in H1 2014 and prices to come under pressure again in H2 2014.