The market outlook

摘要

CRU forecasts the nickel market to post another surplus of around 45,000 tonnes in 2013, as both supply and demand grow by close to 6%. We expect the latter to continue receiving support from emerging economies, as they undergo relatively strong economic growth. We also expect a partial recovery in countries particularly hard-hit by the economic malaise of recent years. However, we expect this will be counteracted by higher Chinese nickel pig iron production, which in our view will continue setting the direction for the supply-side of the market. As such, we forecast the average three-month nickel price to rise by just 1% to $17,706/t this year.We expect 2014 to be the peak year for nickel demand growth over the forecast period, as global economic conditions pick up noticeably. This combined with easing supply growth, which in large part will reflect less additional output from both existing and new projects, should see the market tighten over the forecast horizon. We project the nickel market surplus to essentially halve next year before gradually shifting to a deficit position of almost 20,000 tonnes in 2017.CRU expects prices to rise by 9% per annum over 2014-17, as a result. We expect the average three-month nickel price to reach just shy of $24,800/t by 2017. This is 6% higher than our previous forecast, which in part reflects cost inflation.