US coal generation to drop to 21% in 25 years: Black & Veatch director

摘要

Washington—The percentage of US electricity generated from coal will likely fall to 21% in 2038 from 38% currently, largely due to aging coal-fired plants within the US fleet, a director in Black and Veatch’s management consulting division said Thursday. The projection is largely based on the historical life of a coal-fired plant, which averages 66 years, B&V’s Neil Copeland said in an interview. “Once we hit the 2030 time frame, you start to see those units built in the late 60s, 70s and early 80s start to retire due to nothing but age,” he said. “We don’t really get that many that retire because of economics because at that time, our gas curve is going higher, so the capacity factors on those [coal] units goes higher.”