Faster ramp-ups lift Chinese production, while production in World ex. China remains flat

摘要

Acceleration of ramps up in Xinjiang and Shandong has resulted in higher than expected production in China. Sustained firm LME price could trigger restarts outside of China. Delays in start-up schedules of smelting projects in Russia and Canada over the next two years. Global primary production increased by 6.5% y-o-y to an annualised rate of 53.3Mt in Q2. This was mainly driven by faster than expected ramp-ups in northwest China. Despite closures in H2, Chinese production has increased over the past few months, reaching an annualised rate of 27.4Mt in Q2 (14% y-o-y). World ex. China production remained flat y-o-y, staying at an annualised rate of 26Mt in Q2.