Opinion dynamics: Kinetic modelling with mass media, application to the Scottish independence referendum

摘要

We consider a kinetic model describing some mechanisms of opinion formation in the framework of referendums, where the individuals, who can interact between themselves and modify their opinion by means of spontaneous self-thinking, are moreover under the influence of mass media. We study, at the numerical level, both the transient and the asymptotic regimes. In particular, we point out that a plurality of media, with different orientations, is a key ingredient to allow pluralism and prevent consensus. The forecasts of the model are compared to some surveys related to the Scottish independence referendum of 2014. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.