Figures recently released by the International Aluminium Institute indicate that primary aluminium production outside of China continued to edge higher in June 2010. In fact, output outside China has been rising since August 2009, thanks to re-starts of capacity that was curtailed during the economic downturn, but especially to the ramping up of expansions, both greenfield and brownfield. CRU calculates that of the 3.2m tpy of capacity that was curtailed outside China as a result of the economic downturn, only 491,000 tpy has re-started, while over 700,000 tpy of the curtailed capacity is unlikely ever to re-start, mainly because the technology is obsolete. The chart above shows the extent to which primary production outside of China has picked up from its lows of 62,900 tpd, reached in July 2009. In June 2010, daily output picked up to 66,600 tpd and in the coming months, greenfield and brownfield ramp-ups are set to drive this rate higher still, despite the recent production outages that have impacted some smelters.
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