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Dynamics of an age-structured two-strain model for malaria transmission

机译:具有年龄结构的两株疟疾传播模型的动力学

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摘要

A new age-structured deterministic model for assessing the impact of anti-malaria drugs on the transmission dynamics of malaria is designed and qualitatively analysed. The resulting two-strain age-structured model undergoes backward bifurcation, which arises due to malaria-induced mortality in humans. Conditions for the existence of unique resistant strain-only and low-endemicity equilibria are derived for special cases. It is shown, for the case when treatment does not cause drug resistance, that the disease-free equilibrium of the wild strain-only component of the model is globally-asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number of the model is less than unity. Similar result is established for the resistant strain-only component of the model for this case. Numerical simulations of the model, for the case when treatment does not cause drug resistance, show that the model undergoes competitive exclusion (where the malaria strain with the higher reproduction number drives the other to extinction). (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译:设计并定性分析了一种新的年龄结构确定性模型,用于评估抗疟疾药物对疟疾传播动态的影响。最终的两株年龄结构模型经历了反向分叉,这是由于疟疾引起的人类死亡率而产生的。对于特殊情况,得出存在唯一抗药性菌株和低流行性平衡的条件。对于治疗不引起抗药性的情况,表明,只要模型的相关繁殖数小于1,模型的仅野生菌株的组分的无病平衡就全局渐近稳定。对于这种情况,模型的仅抗应变分量也建立了相似的结果。对于不引起治疗的情况,该模型的数值模拟表明该模型经历了竞争排斥(其中具有较高繁殖数的疟疾菌株使另一物种灭绝)。 (C)2014 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。

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