Russia's oil production seen declining with Yukos output plummeting

摘要

Energy Security Analysis Inc.(ESAI),in a recent edition of CIS Watch,argues that the recently released International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast of Russia's crude production is unjustifiably optimistic.The IEA projected Russia's 2005 crude production to average 9.64-mbpd,implying annual growth of 420,000-bpd relative to 2004.ESAI however sees incremental crude output in 2005 growing by a maximum of 200,000-bpd,with the possibility that emerging factors could reduce this forecast even further.