FORECAST 2004/NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING WILL OFFSET SOFTENING RESIDENTIAL, PUBLIC WORKS MARKETS IN '04 AND '05, EXPERTS AGREE

摘要

When the Portland Cement Association's Chief Economist Ed Sullivan released his spring forecast in March 2003, there were many heads shaking at the "optimistic' projections for the path of economic growth This skepticism was probably warranted: the military campaign in Iraq had just begun, economic growth was anemic, the economy was shedding jobs heartily and declining consumer sentiment threatened a recession. Turns out PCA's scenario was remarkably accurate. And with each passing day, new evidence emerges that suggests the economic recovery is gaining strength, perhaps even faster than envisioned by the spring forecast. Currently, Sullivan's forecast calls for U.S. portland cement consumption of 105.23 million metric tons in 2004, a 0.8 percent increase over 2003's 104.36 million metric tons, which itself was about 1.0 -percent better than 2002 levels. Sullivan goes on to say that every year between 2005 and 2007 will see cement consumption continue to grow between 2 and 3 percent per year, setting growth records along the way. By 2008, Sullivan predicts, total portland cement consumption should top 115.13 million metric tons.