World energy outlook, international energy agency, 1998 edition

摘要

This Outlook aims to identify and discuss the main issues and uncertainties affecting world energy demand and supply over the period to 2020. It does so in the framework of a "business as usual" projection which assumes energy policies existingbefore the Kyoto Conference of December 1997 remain in place and that no new policies are adopted to reduce energy-related greenhouse gases.The Outlook projects world energy demand to grow by 65% and CO{sub}2 emissions by 70% between 1995 and 2020 unless such new policies are put in place. It assumes a rate of world economic growth of 3.1% p.a. (1990 US dollars and purchasing power parity) ,close to the actual rate since 1971. Two-thirds of the increase in energy demand over the period 1995-2020 comes from China and other developing countries.